Browse past weekly updates covering rates, economic data, and market trends.
The BLS delivered just 29,000 jobs in September (vs. 90K expected), with August revised lower and July revised to -10K. PCE inflation improved on the portfolio management fee fix. Strong Treasury auctions showed investor appetite at generational high yields. France's fiscal crisis and Iran tensions remain headwinds. The 10-year closed beneath the critical 5.29 ceiling.
"The week ended on an improved footing after a much-needed relief rally. The BLS September jobs report collapsed to just 29,000 (vs. 90K expected), with August revised lower and July revised to -10,000 (actual job losses) - confirming that the labor market is not as strong as headline numbers suggested. PCE inflation improved meaningfully with the portfolio management fee fix. The 10-year Treasury closed convincingly beneath the critical 5.29 ceiling, and MBS held the 100.22 floor. Strong Treasury auctions confirmed investor appetite at generational high yields. However, France's fiscal crisis (debt/GDP 120%, ECB rescue shot down), Hurricane Isaias disrupting Gulf oil, and lingering inflation concerns (ISM services, consumer expectations) remain significant headwinds. Gains have been difficult to hold, and the market is in the middle of a wide range, susceptible to whipsaws. Next week's CPI and PPI data will be critical. We are cautiously floating, watching whether the 10-year holds under 5.29 and MBS can break through 100.70 resistance."
Mortgage rates remain range-bound as investors digest mixed economic data ahead of key inflation reports and Fed commentary.
"Rates are holding in a frustrating range, but the longer-term story remains encouraging. Inflation is trending lower even if the pace is uneven. Inventory is recovering. And the Fed's next move is still a cut, not a hike. If you're waiting for the perfect rate, you may miss the perfect home. The buyers who move now while competition is lower will be glad they did."
Mortgage bonds are hammering away at the 100.38 ceiling, the 10-year Treasury dipped below 4%, and home prices are accelerating — a clear signal that waiting on the sidelines costs buyers real appreciation.
"The market is giving us a real signal. The 10-year broke below 4%, mortgage bonds are above a ceiling that blocked them six times, and home prices are already accelerating at a 5.3% annualized pace over the last three months. Every week a buyer waits, they risk paying more for the home. That appreciation doesn't go away — it just gets added to the price they pay later. The time to move is when rates are falling, not after. Call your loan officer. Run the numbers. The next move in rates looks lower, and the spring buying season is just beginning."