Browse past weekly updates covering rates, economic data, and market trends.
MBS rallies early then fades as Warsh strikes hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, QCEW reveals only 16,000 jobs/month, and PCE is masked by portfolio management fees. All eyes turn to Jobs Week.
"MBS rallied early in the week (up 19 bps on Aug 25) but gave back gains, ending the week down 15 bps. Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech shifted the tone, with Fed funds futures now pricing 48% chance of a September hike (up from 35%) and 100% chance of at least one hike this year. QCEW revisions revealed only 16,000 jobs/month created over the past year (30% downward revision), with the private sector hit hardest (-178,000). PCE was as expected but portfolio management fees accounted for half of core inflation. The Dallas Fed trim mean at 2.3% tells a very different story than headline PCE at 3.3%. New home sales plunged 10.5% but FHFA home values continue to appreciate (+1.5% YoY, +2.7% in 4 months). We are floating but on high alert, watching the 25-day MA battleground on both MBS and the 10-year Treasury."
Mortgage rates remain range-bound as investors digest mixed economic data ahead of key inflation reports and Fed commentary.
"Rates are holding in a frustrating range, but the longer-term story remains encouraging. Inflation is trending lower even if the pace is uneven. Inventory is recovering. And the Fed's next move is still a cut, not a hike. If you're waiting for the perfect rate, you may miss the perfect home. The buyers who move now while competition is lower will be glad they did."
Mortgage bonds are hammering away at the 100.38 ceiling, the 10-year Treasury dipped below 4%, and home prices are accelerating — a clear signal that waiting on the sidelines costs buyers real appreciation.
"The market is giving us a real signal. The 10-year broke below 4%, mortgage bonds are above a ceiling that blocked them six times, and home prices are already accelerating at a 5.3% annualized pace over the last three months. Every week a buyer waits, they risk paying more for the home. That appreciation doesn't go away — it just gets added to the price they pay later. The time to move is when rates are falling, not after. Call your loan officer. Run the numbers. The next move in rates looks lower, and the spring buying season is just beginning."